CIO Monthly Observations - June 2025
Monthly Observations
June 2, 2025
The S&P fell bounced back in May, rising 6.15%, which brought its year-to-date returns into the black, up 0.5%. The MSCI All Country World index also rose, up 5.5% during the month, which brings its year-to-date gains to 4.5%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index gave back some of its gains, down -0.7% in May, reducing its year-to-date return to 2.45%.
Another busy month in the markets was caused by a trade truce with a major U.S. trading partner, followed by a major tax and spending bill in Congress. The courts also waded into the tariff controversy with a major Federal court ruling that the Executive branch exceeded their authority by enacting such sweeping and all- encompassing tariffs.
Monthly Highlights
The U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs during a 90-day negotiating period Congress is in the process of passing a new tax and spending bill
A U.S. trade court has ruled that the President has overstepped his authority on tariffs
News in Review
The U.S. and China had been in a standoff on trade and tariffs since “Liberation Day”, when President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods in excess of 100%. The new arrangement is a 90-day period for the two sides to negotiate a trade deal, during which time tariffs will be as low as 10-30%. The stock market immediately rallied on the news, with both the S&P and Nasdaq rising over 2-3%.
The House Passes a ‘Big Beautiful Bill’
The House of Representatives passed a large budget package, which preserved the tax cuts from 2017 and increased the state and local tax deduction (SALT) by $30k to $40k. It also raised the debt ceiling by $4 trillion and cut food stamp assistance and clean energy tax credits. The bill now needs to pass the Senate, which will inevitably require changes and compromises in order to get to the President’s desk.
U.S. Trade Court Rules Tariffs Illegal
At the end of May, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that most of the new tariffs that the Trump administration has rolled out this year are illegal. The administration has vowed to appeal this ruling and many analysts – including many on Wall Street – expect them to win on appeal or use other laws to will allow them to legally impose the tariffs that they’ve already announced, so the new court ruling is unlikely to prevent the tariffs from being imposed this year.
Hikers Find a Surprising Discovery
Two lucky hikers in the Czech Republic stumbled on a literal treasure chest of golden coins and jewels dating to the late 1800’s and early 1900’s. The metal that the coins are made from is conservatively worth 7.5 million Czech Crowns (or approximately $340k), but the “historical value of the treasure is priceless” according to one archaeologist, who evaluated the find, because some researchers believe it was hidden after Nazi Germany’s annexation of the region in 1938.
DISCLOSURES
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Blackbridge Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non- financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.
MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage- backed and asset-backed securities.
Please note this newsletter contains hyperlinks to additional content. The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided by these websites.
