CIO Monthly Observations - September 2025
Markets in Review
October 1, 2025
The S&P rose for a fifth month in a row, up 3.5% in September, which brings its year-to-date return to 13.7%. The MSCI All Country World index also rose, up 3.5% during the month, improving its year-to-date gains to 17.1%. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index gained 1.1% in September, which brings its year-to-date return to 6.1%.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time this year and the stock market continued to set new records. Meanwhile, Chinese-owned, social media app TikTok was arranged to be sold to a group of US investors and the cost of H1-B visas was raised to $100k/person
Monthly Highlights
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%
Chinese social media app TikTok will be sold to a group of US investors
The Trump administration raised the costs for US businesses to hire foreign engineers
News in Review
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% at their September meeting in a vote which was almost unanimous (one person dissented because he wanted a 0.50% cut). The Fed acknowledged that although inflation hasn’t moved down to their target rate, the “downside risks to employment have risen”. As of now, there is an equal chance of just one more rate cut in either October or December and the possibility of two rate cuts, one at each of the next two meetings.
Trump Signs Order Declaring TikTok Sale Ready
The President signed an executive order allowing TikTok’s US operations to be sold to a group of investors, who will operate the social media app’s algorithm locally in the United States – instead of in China, where it is currently being controlled. Perhaps most importantly, all of the user data will be stored in the United States and controlled by US investors, instead of Chinese ones.
H-1B Visa Fee Hike to Impact Silicon Valley
The Trump administration recently raised the cost of an H1-B visa to $100,000 per employee, an increase of 20-50 times the previous amount. This visa allows highly educated foreign professionals to work in “specialty occupations” – typically engineers, software developers, etc. and has long been used in Silicon Valley to attract the best talent in the world. The new policy will raise the bar for hiring those workers and will likely put them out of reach for all but the wealthiest US corporations.
Police Pull Over a Self-driving Car, But Don't Have Anyone to Ticket
Police in Northern California pulled over a taxi which made an illegal U-turn, but quickly realized the self-driving car didn’t have a driver. The officers of the San Bruno Police Department contacted Waymo, the company which operates the taxi service, to report the glitch, but since they are only allowed by law to ticket a human driver, the taxi got off with only a warning.
DISCLOSURES
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.
This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non-financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.
MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage- backed and asset-backed securities.
Please note this newsletter contains hyperlinks to additional content. The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided by these websites.
