Monthly Observations - December 2025

By Chris Zaccarelli

Monthly Observations

The S&P 500 rose 3.2% in November, building on October's gains and leaving the index up 16.9% for the year. The MSCI All Country World index rose 2.8% in November, improving its year-to-date return to 14.7%. The Bloomberg BarCap U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose 0.6% during November, which increased its year-to-date gain to 7.5%.

November was another strong month for markets as the economy continued to grow, the Federal Reserve cut rates for a third time in 2025, and corporate earnings continued to beat expectations. The stock market is on track for one of its best years since the pandemic recovery, despite the tariff turbulence earlier in the year.

Monthly Highlights

The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third time in 2025

The stock market is on track for one of its best years since the pandemic recovery

Trade negotiations made significant progress as the year draws to a close

News in Review

Below are some stories that caught our eye this past month. To learn more, follow the links to the full article.

Federal Reserve Cuts Rates for Third Time in 2025

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 0.25% at their November meeting, the third rate cut of 2025. The Fed noted that inflation had returned to their 2% target and that the economy was growing at a healthy and sustainable pace. The cut was widely expected and was seen as a sign that the Fed's monetary policy is now in a more neutral position.

S&P 500 on Track for Best Year Since 2021

With a gain of nearly 17% through November, the S&P 500 is on track for one of its best annual performances since the pandemic recovery year of 2021. The strong performance is particularly impressive given the tariff turmoil earlier in the year that briefly pushed the index into correction territory.

US and China Announce Comprehensive Trade Framework

The US and China announced a comprehensive trade framework that will significantly reduce tariffs and establish new rules for trade between the two countries. The framework is not a complete trade deal, but it provides a roadmap for continued negotiations and represents the most significant progress in US-China trade relations in years.

Town in Japan Holds Annual Festival Where Cats Are the Stars

A small town in Japan holds an annual festival that celebrates cats as the guardians of the town. The festival draws thousands of visitors from around the world who come to see the elaborately decorated cats and participate in traditional ceremonies. The festival has its roots in an ancient legend that the cats of the town once saved it from a terrible flood.

DISCLOSURES

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Blackbridge Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non-financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.

MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities.

Please note this newsletter contains hyperlinks to additional content. The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided by these websites.