Monthly Observations - November 2025

By Chris Zaccarelli

Monthly Observations

The S&P 500 rose 2.5% in October, a strong result for a month that is sometimes called Octoberphobia due to its reputation for market crashes. The MSCI All Country World index rose 2.2% in October, improving its year-to-date return to 11.6%. The Bloomberg BarCap U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose 0.3% during October, which increased its year-to-date gain to 6.9%.

October was another positive month for markets as the economy continued to grow, the Federal Reserve cut rates again, and trade negotiations continued to make progress. Corporate earnings for the third quarter came in better than expected, which provided additional support for the stock market.

Monthly Highlights

The Federal Reserve cut rates for the second time in 2025

Third quarter earnings came in better than expected

Trade negotiations continued to make progress on multiple fronts

News in Review

Below are some stories that caught our eye this past month. To learn more, follow the links to the full article.

Federal Reserve Cuts Rates for Second Time This Year

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by another 0.25% at their October meeting, the second rate cut of 2025. The Fed noted that inflation continued to move toward their 2% target and that the economy was growing at a sustainable pace. The cut was widely expected by markets and was seen as part of a gradual easing cycle.

Third Quarter Earnings Season Exceeds Expectations

Corporate earnings for the third quarter of 2025 came in better than expected, with the majority of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings above analyst estimates. Technology companies led the way with strong results, but even companies in more cyclical industries like manufacturing and energy reported better than expected results.

US and China Make Progress on Trade Deal

The US and China continued to make progress on a broader trade deal, with both sides reporting that negotiations were proceeding constructively. The 90-day truce announced in May has been extended and both sides have been working to reduce tariffs on additional categories of goods. A comprehensive deal remains elusive, but the trend is in the right direction.

Dog Named Mayor of Small Town in Alaska Wins Third Term

A golden retriever named Donut has been re-elected as the honorary mayor of Talkeetna, Alaska for a third consecutive term. Donut, who succeeded the previous canine mayor Max, has been a beloved fixture in the small town and his election is a longstanding tradition. The town's residents say that Donut brings joy to the community and is an effective ambassador for the town.

DISCLOSURES

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Blackbridge Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non-financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.

MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities.

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