Monthly Observations - April 2025

By Chris Zaccarelli

Monthly Observations

The S&P 500 fell -5.6% in March, giving back most of its year-to-date gains. The MSCI All Country World index also fell -4.0% in March, reducing its year-to-date return to 0.3%. The Bloomberg BarCap U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose 0.0% during March, which leaves its year-to-date gain at 2.2%.

Markets fell sharply in March as concerns around tariffs intensified and began to drag on the economy. Consumer confidence fell and manufacturing activity contracted. While the economy is still growing, the pace of growth is slowing down and many economists are now warning about the risk of a recession if the tariff situation is not resolved soon.

Monthly Highlights

Tariffs are weighing on the economy and markets fell sharply

Consumer confidence fell and manufacturing contracted

Recession fears are increasing as the tariff situation drags on

News in Review

Below are some stories that caught our eye this past month. To learn more, follow the links to the full article.

Stock Market Tumbles as Tariff Fears Shake Investors

The stock market fell sharply in March as concerns about tariffs and their potential impact on the economy intensified. The S&P 500 entered correction territory (defined as a 10% decline from peak) for the first time in over two years, as investors worried about the economic impact of an escalating trade war with multiple countries.

Consumer Confidence Falls to Lowest Level in Years

Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in several years as Americans became more pessimistic about the economy and their own financial situations. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply, with consumers expressing concerns about jobs, income, and the overall economic outlook.

Manufacturing Activity Contracts for First Time Since 2023

US manufacturing activity contracted in March for the first time since late 2023, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. The contraction was driven by a sharp drop in new orders, which fell to their lowest level in several years. Manufacturers cited uncertainty around tariffs as a major factor in their decision to cut back on production.

World's Oldest Message in a Bottle Found on Australian Beach

A 132-year-old message in a bottle was found on a beach in Western Australia, making it the oldest ever discovered. The bottle was thrown into the ocean by a German ship in 1886 as part of an experiment to map ocean currents. The message inside asked finders to record the date and location of the discovery and mail it to the German Naval Observatory.

DISCLOSURES

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Blackbridge Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non-financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.

MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities.

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