Monthly Observations - July 2025

By Chris Zaccarelli

Monthly Observations

The S&P 500 rose 3.5% in June, further extending its recovery from the April lows. The MSCI All Country World index also rose 2.8% in June, improving its year-to-date return to 4.1%. The Bloomberg BarCap U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose 0.4% during June, which increased its year-to-date gain to 3.8%.

Markets continued to recover in June as the tariff situation stabilized and economic data remained positive. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but signaled that they would be willing to cut rates if the economy slowed down. The stock market ended the first half of the year in positive territory, with the S&P 500 up 5.2% year-to-date.

Monthly Highlights

Markets continued to recover as tariff situation stabilized

The Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled readiness to cut

The S&P 500 finished the first half of the year with modest gains

News in Review

Below are some stories that caught our eye this past month. To learn more, follow the links to the full article.

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Cites Uncertainty Around Tariffs

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at their June meeting, citing uncertainty around tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and the economy. Fed Chair Powell noted that the economy remains in good shape but that the tariff situation makes it difficult to predict the future path of inflation and growth.

S&P 500 Posts Positive Return for First Half of 2025

Despite the volatility earlier in the year, the S&P 500 ended the first half of 2025 with a modest gain of 5.2%. The recovery was driven by the resolution of the most severe tariff fears and continued strong performance from technology stocks. The second half of the year will likely be determined by the outcome of ongoing trade negotiations.

US and UK Reach Trade Deal, Reducing Tariffs on Key Goods

The US and UK announced a trade deal that will reduce tariffs on a range of goods traded between the two countries. The deal was seen as a positive sign that the US is willing to negotiate trade agreements with its allies and could serve as a template for future deals with other countries.

New Species of Deep-Sea Fish Discovered in Pacific Ocean

Scientists have discovered a new species of deep-sea fish in the Pacific Ocean. The fish, which lives at depths of over 1000 meters, has unique bioluminescent properties that allow it to attract prey in the darkness of the deep ocean. The discovery highlights how much of the ocean remains unexplored and how many species have yet to be discovered.

DISCLOSURES

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Blackbridge Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non-financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.

MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities.

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