Monthly Observations - September 2025

By Chris Zaccarelli

Monthly Observations

The S&P 500 rose 2.1% in August, continuing its recovery and reaching new all-time highs. The MSCI All Country World index rose 2.0% in August, improving its year-to-date return to 7.5%. The Bloomberg BarCap U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose 1.0% during August, which increased its year-to-date gain to 5.3%.

Markets continued their strong performance in August, reaching new all-time highs as the tariff situation continued to improve and economic data remained positive. The Federal Reserve signaled that it was getting closer to cutting interest rates, which provided an additional boost to markets.

Monthly Highlights

Markets reached new all-time highs in August

The Federal Reserve signaled it is getting closer to cutting interest rates

Trade negotiations continued to make progress with multiple countries

News in Review

Below are some stories that caught our eye this past month. To learn more, follow the links to the full article.

S&P 500 Reaches New All-Time Highs in August

The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs in August, fully recovering from the April selloff and then some. The index is now up over 10% from its April lows and has returned to its pre-tariff levels. The recovery has been driven by a combination of factors including the easing of trade tensions, strong corporate earnings, and expectations of future Fed rate cuts.

Fed Signals Rate Cut Could Come as Soon as September

Federal Reserve Chair Powell signaled at the Jackson Hole economic symposium that the Fed is getting closer to cutting interest rates. Powell noted that inflation has continued to move toward the Fed's 2% target and that the labor market has cooled to a more sustainable pace. Markets interpreted the speech as a signal that a rate cut at the September meeting was likely.

US and EU Reach Trade Framework Agreement

The US and European Union announced a framework agreement on trade that would reduce tariffs and resolve several long-standing trade disputes. The deal was seen as a significant diplomatic achievement and helped to ease concerns about a transatlantic trade war that had been a risk earlier in the year.

Scientists Successfully Grow Human Kidney in Lab

Scientists announced a breakthrough in regenerative medicine: the successful growth of a functional human kidney in a laboratory setting using stem cells. The achievement could eventually lead to a solution to the shortage of donor organs and provide personalized organ replacements for patients with kidney disease.

DISCLOSURES

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Blackbridge Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non-financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.

MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities.

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